Validating validation individual development plan

14-Apr-2016 08:44

Chronic LBP will be defined as having greater than ‘very mild’ pain 3 months after the initial assessment.

In the development sample, this was classified as 2 on a 6-point Likert scale (How much back pain have you had in the past week?

Early identification of at-risk patients allows clinicians to make informed decisions based on prognostic profile, and researchers to select appropriate participants for secondary prevention trials.

The aim of this study is to develop and validate a prognostic screening tool that identifies patients with acute low back pain in primary care who are at risk of developing chronic low back pain.

In the validation stage, we will use data from a separate sample of 1643 patients with acute low back pain to assess the performance of each prognostic model.

We chose a disability score of ≥2/5 on the 5-point scale used in the development sample,41 or ≥7/24 on the 24-point Roland Morris Disability scale used in the validation sample.

When both are converted to a 0–10 scale, these values approximate each other (7/24×10=3/10 or 1.5/5).2 Choosing this disability cut-off will allow comparison to two recently published prognostic screening tools, which also selected a cut-off of 7 on the Roland scale.16 Candidate predictors will be selected from those measured at baseline in the cohort study if they are: (1) simple and reliable to measure in practice and (2) have a theoretical association with the development of chronic LBP.

Candidate predictors are listed in online supplementary appendix A.

The task force also emphasised the importance of grading the of chronic pain and disability, though validated cut-offs were not available.

The recent progress made to define chronic LBP highlights the need to identify not only the patients at risk of ongoing pain for 3 months, but also the patients at risk of developing high-impact chronic pain and disability.

We chose a disability score of ≥2/5 on the 5-point scale used in the development sample,41 or ≥7/24 on the 24-point Roland Morris Disability scale used in the validation sample.

When both are converted to a 0–10 scale, these values approximate each other (7/24×10=3/10 or 1.5/5).2 Choosing this disability cut-off will allow comparison to two recently published prognostic screening tools, which also selected a cut-off of 7 on the Roland scale.16 Candidate predictors will be selected from those measured at baseline in the cohort study if they are: (1) simple and reliable to measure in practice and (2) have a theoretical association with the development of chronic LBP.

Candidate predictors are listed in online supplementary appendix A.

The task force also emphasised the importance of grading the of chronic pain and disability, though validated cut-offs were not available.

The recent progress made to define chronic LBP highlights the need to identify not only the patients at risk of ongoing pain for 3 months, but also the patients at risk of developing high-impact chronic pain and disability.

The aim of this protocol is to describe the method and analysis plan for the development and validation of a prognostic screening tool for acute LBP that is suitable for secondary prevention.